April 18, 2024
reading time: 2 mins
All in all, the Current Account Balance is consolidating in positive territory, +1.7% of GDP, last 12 months, record data, not just because Goods Balance is less negative, -9.1% of GDP, better than moving averages, but surplus at Services is now +10,6% of GDP, a record level, mainly explained by Travel, +7.1% of GDP. Nevertheless, Travel is apparently, consolidating around current figures, so it will be important the Goods Balance deficit continues to shrink.
The Bank of Portugal has just released February External Balance data.
The main highlights are the following:
- 1 – Current Account Balance, in percentage of GDP, last 12 months: +1.73%. Compares with the 12MMA (12 months moving average): +0.9% and 3MMA: +1.6%;
- 2 – Balance of Goods (just goods, net), deficit: -9.1% of GDP (last 12months) vs. 12MMA: -9.8% and 3MMA: -9.2%;
- 3 – Balance of Goods deficit went down 3.0%YoY in February vs. 12MMA: -7.3% and 3MMA: -9.1%;
- 4 – Balance of Services (just services, net; includes Travel Account Balance) surplus: +10.6% of GDP (last 12 months) vs. 12MMA: 10.2% and 3MMA: 10.6%
- 5 – Travel Account Balance (just tourism revenues, net; a subcomponent of Services Account Balance) surplus is at +7.1% of GDP (last 12months) vs. 12MMA: +7.0% and 3MMA: +7.1%;
- 6 – Travel Account surplus went up 17.4%YoY in February vs. 12MMA: +18.5% and 3MMA: +15%.
Our comments: February kept the positive trend, Current Account slightly positive as was the case of January and compares with negative data one year ago. The surplus, over the last 12 months in percentage of GDP is now 1.73%; above moving averages. The Deficit at Good Balance is coming down, in February -3%YoY and -9.1% of GDP last 12 months, while Services continues to improve, 16.3%YoY and 10.6% of GDP, last 12 months. Travel, included on the Services account, went up 17.4%YoY and is now 7.1% of GDP, last 12 months.
Source: INE, BoP, AS Independent Research
António Seladas, CFA
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